41) A medium-term forecast is considered to cover what length of time? A) 2-4 weeks B) 1 month to 1
41) A medium-term forecast is considered
to cover what length of time?
A) 2-4 weeks
B) 1 month to 1 year
C) 2-4 years
D) 5-10 years
E) 20 years
42) When is the exponential smoothing
model equivalent to the naïve forecasting model?
A) ? = 0
B) ? = 0.5
C) ? = 1
D) during the first period in which it is
used
E) never
43) Enrollment in a particular class for
the last four semesters has been 120, 126, 110, and 130. Suppose a one-semester
moving average was used to forecast enrollment (this is sometimes referred to
as a naïve forecast). Thus, the forecast for the second semester would be 120,
for the third semester it would be 126, and for the last semester it would be
110. What would the MSE be for this situation?
A) 196.00
B) 230.67
C) 100.00
D) 42.00
E) None of the above
44) Which of the following methods tells
whether the forecast tends to be too high or too low?
A) MAD
B) MSE
C) MAPE
D) decomposition
E) bias
45) Assume that you have tried three
different forecasting models. For the first, the MAD = 2.5, for the second, the
MSE = 10.5, and for the third, the MAPE = 2.7. We can then say:
A) the third method is the best.
B) the second method is the best.
C) methods one and three are preferable to
method two.
D) method two is least preferred.
E) None of the above
46) Which of the following methods gives
an indication of the percentage of forecast error?
A) MAD
B) MSE
C) MAPE
D) decomposition
E) bias
47) Daily demand for newspapers for the
last 10 days has been as follows: 12, 13, 16, 15, 12, 18, 14, 12, 13, 15
(listed from oldest to most recent). Forecast sales for the next day using a
two-day moving average.
A) 14
B) 13
C) 15
D) 28
E) 12.5
48) As one increases the number of periods
used in the calculation of a moving average,
A) greater emphasis is placed on more
recent data.
B) less emphasis is placed on more recent
data.
C) the emphasis placed on more recent data
remains the same.
D) it requires a computer to automate the
calculations.
E) one is usually looking for a long-term
prediction.
49) Enrollment in a particular class for
the last four semesters has been 122, 128, 100, and 155 (listed from oldest to
most recent). The best forecast of enrollment next semester, based on a
three-semester moving average, would be
A) 116.7.
B) 126.3.
C) 168.3.
D) 135.0.
E) 127.7.
50) Which of the following methods
produces a particularly stiff penalty in periods with large forecast errors?
A) MAD
B) MSE
C) MAPE
D) decomposition
E) bias
51) The process of isolating linear trend
and seasonal factors to develop more accurate forecasts is called
A) regression.
B) decomposition.
C) smoothing.
D) monitoring.
E) None of the above
52) Sales for boxes of Girl Scout cookies
over a 4-month period were forecasted as follows: 100, 120, 115, and 123. The
actual results over the 4-month period were as follows: 110, 114, 119, 115.
What was the MAD of the 4-month forecast?
A) 0
B) 5
C) 7
D) 108
E) None of the above
53) Sales for boxes of Girl Scout cookies
over a 4-month period were forecasted as follows: 100, 120, 115, and 123. The
actual results over the 4-month period were as follows: 110, 114, 119, 115.
What was the MSE of the 4-month forecast?
A) 0
B) 5
C) 7
D) 108
E) None of the above
54) Daily demand for newspapers for the
last 10 days has been as follows: 12, 13, 16, 15, 12, 18, 14, 12, 13, 15
(listed from oldest to most recent). Forecast sales for the next day using a
three-day weighted moving average where the weights are 3, 1, and 1 (the
highest weight is for the most recent number).
A) 12.8
B) 13.0
C) 70.0
D) 14.0
E) None of the above
55) Daily demand for newspapers for the
last 10 days has been as follows: 12, 13, 16, 15, 12, 18, 14, 12, 13, 15
(listed from oldest to most recent). Forecast sales for the next day using a
two-day weighted moving average where the weights are 3 and 1.
A) 14.5
B) 13.5
C) 14
D) 12.25
E) 12.75
56) Which of the following is not
considered to be one of the components of a time series?
A) trend
B) seasonality
C) variance
D) cycles
E) random variations
57) Which of the following statements
about the decomposition method is/are false?
A) The process of
“deseasonalizing” involves multiplying by a seasonal index.
B) Dummy variables are used in a
regression model as part of an additive approach to seasonality.
C) Computing seasonal indices is the first
step of the decomposition method.
D) Data is “deseasonalized”
after the trend line is found.
E) Decomposition can involve additive or
multiplicative methods with respect to seasonality.
58) Enrollment in a particular class for
the last four semesters has been 120, 126, 110, and 130 (listed from oldest to
most recent). Develop a forecast of enrollment next semester using exponential
smoothing with an alpha = 0.2. Assume that an initial forecast for the first
semester was 120 (so the forecast and the actual were the same).
A) 118.96
B) 121.17
C) 130
D) 120
E) None of the above
59) Demand for soccer balls at a new
sporting goods store is forecasted using the following regression equation:
Y = 98 +
2.2X where X is the number of months that the store has been in
existence. Let April be represented by
X = 4.
April is assumed to have a seasonality index of 1.15. What is the forecast for
soccer ball demand for the month of April (rounded to the nearest integer)?
A) 123
B) 107
C) 100
D) 115
E) None of the above
60) A TIME SERIES forecasting model in
which the forecast for the next period is the actual value for the current
period is the
A) Delphi model.
B) Holt’s model.
C) naïve model.
D) exponential smoothing model.
E) weighted moving average.
61) In picking the smoothing constant for
an exponential smoothing model, we should look for a value that
A) produces a nice-looking curve.
B) equals the utility level that matches
with our degree of risk aversion.
C) produces values which compare well with
actual values based on a standard measure of error.
D) causes the least computational effort.
E) None of the above
62) Which of the following is not
considered one of the steps to developing the decomposition method?
A) compute seasonal indices using CMAs
B) deseasonalize the data by dividing each
number by its seasonal index
C) find the equation of the trend line
using the deseasonlized data
D) forecast for future periods using the
trend line
E) add the seasonal index to the trend
forecast
63) A method to measure how well
predictions fit actual data is
A) decomposition
B) smoothing
C) tracking signal
D) regression
E) moving average
64) If the Q1 demand for a particular year
is 200 and the seasonal index is 0.85, what is the deseasonalized demand value
for Q1?
A) 170
B) 185
C) 215
D) 235.29
E) 250
65) In the exponential smoothing with
trend adjustment forecasting method, ? is the
A) slope of the trend line.
B) new forecast.
C) Y-axis intercept.
D) independent variable.
E) trend smoothing constant.
66) Using the additive decomposition
model, what would be the period 2, Q3 forecast using the following equation:.jpg”> = 20 + 3.2X1+ 1.5X2 + 0.8X3 + 0.6X4?
A) 23.2
B) 25
C) 27
D) 27.2
E) 27.9
67) The computer monitoring of tracking
signals and self-adjustment is referred to as
A) exponential smoothing.
B) adaptive smoothing.
C) trend projections.
D) trend smoothing.
E) running sum of forecast errors (RFSE).
68) Which of the following is not a
characteristic of trend projections?
A) The variable being predicted is the Y
variable.
B) Time is the X variable.
C) It is useful for predicting the value
of one variable based on time trend.
D) A negative intercept term always
implies that the dependent variable is decreasing over time.
E) They are often developed using linear
regression.
69) A tracking signal was calculated for a
particular set of demand forecasts. This tracking signal was positive. This
would indicate that
A) demand is greater than the forecast.
B) demand is less than the forecast.
C) demand is equal to the forecast.
D) the MAD is negative.
E) None of the above
70) A seasonal index of ________ indicates
that the season is average.
A) 10
B) 100
C) 0.5
D) 0
E) 1
71) The errors in a particular forecast
are as follows: 4, -3, 2, 5, -1. What is the tracking signal of the forecast?
A) 0.4286
B) 2.3333
C) 5
D) 1.4
E) 2.5
72) Demand for a particular type of
battery fluctuates from one week to the next. A study of the last six weeks
provides the following demands (in dozens): 4, 5, 3, 2, 8, 10 (last week).
(a) Forecast demand for the next week
using a two-week moving average.
(b) Forecast demand for the next week
using a three-week moving average.
73) Daily high temperatures in the city of
Houston for the last week have been: 93, 94, 93, 95, 92, 86, 98 (yesterday).
(a) Forecast the high temperature today
using a three-day moving average.
(b) Forecast the high temperature today
using a two-day moving average.
(c) Calculate the mean absolute deviation
based on a two-day moving average, covering all days in which you can have a
forecast and an actual temperature.
74) For the data below:
Month
Automobile
Battery
Sales
Month
Automobile
Battery
Sales
January
20
July
17
February
21
August
18
March
15
September
20
April
14
October
20
May
13
November
21
June
16
December
23
(a) Develop a scatter diagram.
(b) Develop a three-month moving average.
(c) Compute MAD.
75) For the data below:
Month
Automobile
Tire
Sales
Month
Automobile
Tire
Sales
January
80
July
68
February
84
August
100
March
60
September
80
April
56
October
80
May
52
November
84
June
64
December
92
(a) Develop a scatter diagram.
(b) Compute a three-month moving average.
(c) Compute
the MSE.
76) For the data below:
Year
Automobile
Sales
Year
Automobile
Sales
1990
116
1997
119
1991
105
1998
34
1992
29
1999
34
1993
59
2000
48
1994
108
2001
53
1995
94
2002
65
1996
27
2003
111
(a) Develop a scatter diagram.
(b) Develop a six-year moving average
forecast.
(c) Find
MAPE.
77) Use simple exponential smoothing with
? = 0.3 to forecast battery sales for February through May. Assume that the
forecast for January was for 22 batteries.
Month
Automobile
Battery Sales
January
42
February
33
March
28
April
59
78) Average starting salaries for students
using a placement service at a university have been steadily increasing. A
study of the last four graduating classes indicates the following average
salaries: $30,000, $32,000, $34,500, and $36,000 (last graduating class).
Predict the starting salary for the next graduating class using a simple exponential
smoothing model with ? = 0.25. Assume that the initial forecast was $30,000 (so
that the forecast and the actual were the same).
79) Use simple exponential smoothing with
? = 0.33 to forecast the tire sales for February through May. Assume that the
forecast for January was for 22 sets of tires.
Month
Automobile
Battery Sales
January
28
February
21
March
39
April
34
80) The following table represents the new
members that have been acquired by a fitness center.
Month
New
members
Jan
45
Feb
60
March
57
April
65
Assuming ? = 0.3, ? = 0.4, an
initial forecast of 40 for January, and an initial trend adjustment of 0 for
January, use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to come up with a
forecast for May on new members.